Intro

Chris Paul is one of the greatest point guards of all time. That is hardly a controversial statement but greatness doesn't always translate to success and if there is anything that is used as a knock on Chris Paul's career, the lack of a ring is it.

For the second time in his career, CP3 is joining a playoff team that is hoping his addition will elevate them to contender status. Beyond wondering if his body will hold up, the questions on most Warriors fan's minds are: Will he elevate the Steph minutes and can he help shore up the non-Steph minutes? To answer those questions we'll dive a bit into the impact he has had on the teams he joined before discussing a bit of last year and where the Warriors came up short.

CP3 is a Winner

While he has only made the finals once, there is no mistaking that Chris Paul is a winner. That has been true since his first season in the league. Below you'll see the number of wins each team that CP3 has joined won in the season before they got him versus the season after.

First Year On Teams Wins

Other than in OKC, his teams have won more games the season after he joined. In OKC, we are talking about the 2019-20 season, right after OKC initiated a rebuild by trading Paul George for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari plus picks to the Clippers and Westbrook for Chris Paul plus picks and swaps to the Rockets. However, the 2019-20 season aka the Rudy Gobert mic incident season, had teams playing just 72 games. Below you'll see the win percentage of each team for the season directly before and after CP3 joined.

First Year On Teams Win Percentage

Even a soft rebuild hasn't stopped this man from playing winning basketball.

Elevating His Teams

While it is evident that Chris has elevated his teams, it isn't yet clear how he has elevated his teammates. In order to investigate that, let's take a gander at the on-off numbers for his teams, again comparing the season before his arrival to his first season with the team. Due to on-off numbers only starting to be recorded with the 2007-2008 season, we won't be looking at his arrival in New Orleans. One thing to note before hopping in, I only depicted the top 10 players in terms of minutes for each team.

First, the Clippers:

On-Off Clippers

Let's start with how to think about this graph. The players to the right/under the diagonal line are the players where the team is better when they are on the court rather than off. While it is good to have a number of players in the area, those in the bottom right quadrant are what we could consider as the 'no sit zone', as the team struggles to play productive basketball when these players are off the court. Too few people under this diagonal and too many in the bottom right quadrant could indicate that there are only a handful of productive lineups.

As we can see, the Clippers moved from being a highly unproductive team to one that was extremely top heavy with only a handful of players contributing to winning minutes. It looks like Blake Griffin was the biggest benefactor of having CP3 on the team with his oncourt plus minus jumping from -1.7 to +5 though that unfortunately was accompanied by his on-off jumping from +2.9 to +12.4, similar to Chris Paul's on-off at +11.1.

One thing that we'll have to be careful about is that the Clippers underwent a huge roster shakeup which means this on-off data between the two seasons is going to be pretty noisy when trying to narrow down on CP's impact.

Moving on to the Rockets:

On-Off Rockets

The first conclusion is that it looks like CP3 made a good team better. In particular, Eric Gordon explodes from being a +0.7 on-off to +7.6 while Nene goes from +2.2 to +7.6! However, what is also worth noting is that Harden actually stagnates, going from +3.5 to +3 though his oncourt net takes a modest jump from +5.2 to +7.4 We'll investigate this a bit later when we take a look at some lineup data.

Next, OKC:

On-Off Thunder

Perhaps the first thing to note here is the similarity of distribution between these two teams despite the loss of two allstars in Russell Westbrook and Paul George. Additionally, Dennis Schroder takes a huge leap, jumping from +0.2 to +6.3 for his on-off. While Steven Adams takes a step back from an on-off of +8.2 to +3.3, that is highly linked to more productive play from Nerlens Noel who jumps from -7 to -0.9. It looks like the performance from the center position is more stable with the arrival of CP3 which is something we can look into.

To Wrap it up, the Suns.

On-Off Suns

With the Suns we can see a jump from a team with a handful of players carrying the positive minutes to a much more well rounded team. The addition of Cameron Payne, Jae Crowder, and, most importantly, Chris Paul sees the Suns elevate into what would be a finals bound team. Only Saric sees a big jump in his on-off (-3.1 to 6.4) while Deandre Ayton (+4.2 to +.9), Devin Booker (+6 to +2.6), and Mikal Bridges (+4.6 to +2.6) fall due to the support of a better second unit.

Lining it Up

Before moving on to what this means for the Warriors, let's see if we can get a more solid sense of what Chris Paul has brought to each of these teams by looking at some lineup data. In particular, let's start by looking at how productive his teams have been when he plays along his costars. When comparing players, we will see how the team performed with a player and without the other players they are being compared to before seeing how lineups with multiple players performed.

Lineup data only started being recorded with the 2007-08 season so that is where we will begin.

New Orleans

Let's start by looking at how CP produced with his fellow All Star David West.

Plus Minus Per 36: David West and Chris Paul

Team	w/ D. West	w/ C. Paul	w/ Both
NOH 2007-08	0.600114	5.51652	5.78095
NOH 2008-09	-11.0162	0.69283	4.74636
NOH 2009-10	-4.35385	-0.717342	0.42319
NOH 2010-11	-1.04018	4.95814	2.59181

Despite All Star years in 2007-08 and 2008-09 from David West, it seems he struggled to win in the minutes that Chris Paul was on the bench. Overall, we can see that they excelled together in the first couple of years but Paul wasn't as reliant on West as West was on Paul. Especially toward the end of their time together, their synergy begins to falter. CP was out for about half of the 2009-10 season so the struggle to produce could have that as a possible reason. However, during the next season, the minutes with both of them on the floor were worse than those with just CP. Good players typically make each other better so the downturn in that last season is interesting.

How about with former All Star Peja Stojaković?

Plus Minus Per 36: Peja Stojaković and Chris Paul

Team	w/ P. Stojakovic	w/ C. Paul	w/ Both
NOH 2007-08	-0.776531	0.889553	6.76593
NOH 2008-09	-5.68901	2.55245	5.35828
NOH 2009-10	-5.19178	-4.68942	3.80841

First, while CP and Stojaković played together in 2010-11, Stojaković was injured throughout nearly all of that season so I dropped that data. Looking at what remains each of the three seasons sees both players excelling when together. In particular, looking at the 2009-10 season, the Hornets would finish their season with a net rating of -2.6. To have the pairing of CP and Stojaković still outscore their opponents by nearly 4 is something to note.

Last, for New Orleans, let us check out center Tyson Chandler.

Plus Minus Per 36: Tyson Chandler and Chris Paul

Team	w/ T. Chandler	w/ C. Paul	w/ Both
NOP 2007-08	1.04836	3.94165	6.15415
NOP 2008-09	0.594959	3.34609	5.24886

We see a moderate bump to CP's output but not nearly to the extent of Stojaković but more consistent (though this is a smaller sample) of West.

LA Clippers

It makes sense to start with CP's costar in LA, Blake Griffin.

Plus Minus Per 36: Blake Griffin and Chris Paul

Team	w/ B. Griffin	w/ C. Paul	w/ Both
LAC 2011-12	2.23874	3.0446	5.82197
LAC 2012-13	4.22903	14.921	5.64464
LAC 2013-14	3.26324	6.7701	9.02011
LAC 2014-15	-2.31	7.21602	9.87654
LAC 2015-16	-7.42337	7.19779	10.0745
LAC 2016-17	-0.130024	12.1991	10.499

Apart from 2015-2016, Griffin played 61 or more games each of these seasons. Now, a decent amount of this data is pretty noisy. The 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons saw CP play less than 500 minutes combined without Blake Griffin alongside him as opposed to Griffin's approximately 1400 without CP. Their first few years see solid bumps to their performance while together though each had the capacity to win while the other was on the bench. However, by 2014-15 it clearly becomes the CP3 show. In the 1555 minutes, Paul plays without Griffin during his injury riddled 2015-16 season, he manages to put together a plus-minus per 36 of 7.2 and leads the Clippers to the second best net rating in the league of 6.9 and the highest offensive rating of 112.4. While still explosive when together, CP was able to find traction even without Griffin in the lineup.

Plus Minus Per 36: DeAndre Jordan and Chris Paul

Let's check out DeAndre Jordan next.

Team	w/ D. Jordan	w/ C. Paul	w/ Both
LAC 2011-12	-2.1511	7.20897	4.50499
LAC 2012-13	-2.61915	6.77285	6.61306
LAC 2013-14	2.9336	14.7939	7.89112
LAC 2014-15	-15.9371	-0.716442	10.4095
LAC 2015-16	-0.350446	17.4247	7.24354
LAC 2016-17	-4.55581	3.44443	11.6558

After the 2013-14 season, CP plays a maximum of 301.5 minutes without DeAndre Jordan on the court with him. On the other hand in 2013-14 and 2016-17, DJ played 982 and 838 minutes without Chris Paul respectively. While it is clear that the minutes he gets to play with CP led to more productive minutes, probably meaning he was a more productive player, it isn't as clear how much CP needed Jordan in return. This is particularly the case when looking at 3 season stretch from 2013-14 to 2015-16 where CP goes from not needing a solid center to play an effective game to needing one badly before returning to not needing one.

Plus Minus Per 36: JJ Redick and Chris Paul

One thing that was surprising with the Hornets, was the fact that CP's best minutes came from playing with their best shooter, rather than arguably the second best player on the team David West. Because of that, let us take a quick look at CP's numbers with JJ Redick.

Team	w/ J. Redick	w/ C. Paul	w/ Both
LAC 2013-14	4.42028	8.21087	10.5722
LAC 2014-15	-5.9038	3.40317	11.1215
LAC 2015-16	-5.77274	2.14847	9.55971
LAC 2016-17	-0.70536	7.57513	11.8172

Again, we see CP benefiting greatly from having an elite shooter to play with. Of the three players we looked at from the Clippers, CP's plus-minus seems more linked to JJ than the other two players.

Houston Rockets

Moving on to the Rockets, James Harden is the clear star to compare to.

Team	w/ J. Harden	w/ C. Paul	w/ Both
HOU 2017-18	6.17235	10.1875	9.31367
HOU 2018-19	4.04208	6.83612	5.16283

In Houston, Chris Paul dealt with a decent amount of injury meaning that there are quite a few minutes behind each of these stats. Harden sliding into the SG spot seems to have worked in particular in their first year. Note that since Harden played 14 more games than Paul in 2017-18 and 20 more in 2018-19, his numbers are going to be impacted by digging deeper into the roster. Additionally, Chris Paul would be playing more minutes with the Rockets' second unit and against the second unit of the opposition. However, even if we put aside the higher plus-minus, the Rockets went 6-3 with Harden out but with Paul playing and 15-8 without Paul but with Harden in. This likely has something to do with the overlap in skill sets between the two players and both of their ability to play in the isolation-heavy style set up by D'Antoni to maximize Harden's skillset. That overlap probably plays into the only moderate plus-minus improvement, especially that of the second season together. What it does mean, however, is that the Rockets were able to play at a high level more consistently both by preventing Harden from wearing out before the end of the game and by winning the non-Harden minutes through the execution of a similar style.

We saw above that there were two players in particular who saw big gains in on-off.

Starting with Eric Gordon, one big reason for a player's potential rise in on-off is a reduction of responsibilities. Let's take a look at the minutes shared between Eric Gordon, Chris Paul, and James Harden.

Minutes: Chris Paul, James Harden, and Eric Gordon

Team	Chris Paul Only	James Harden Only	Eric Gordon Only	CP + Harden	Harden + Gordon	CP + Gordon	w/ All 3
HOU 2016-17	-	1434.28	811.028	-	1512.44	-	-
HOU 2017-18	249.463	532.468	330.643	821.883	1048.13	626.907	148.303
HOU 2018-19	258.123	851.792	166.543	492.122	884.937	468.605	637.492

Right off the bat, it appears that Eric Gordon played fewer minutes without a high-level playmaker. Because of that, we could expect Gordon's minutes to be more productive simply because he is playing next to higher-level players more often. However, with such a big jump I think it is unlikely to describe the entire difference. Let us next look at plus minus per 36.

Plus Minus Per 36: Chris Paul, James Harden, and Eric Gordon

Team	Chris Paul Only	James Harden Only	Eric Gordon Only	CP + Harden	Harden + Gordon	CP + Gordon	w/ All 3
HOU 2016-17	-	5.17053	3.41788	-	5.18898	-	-
HOU 2017-18	2.8862	-0.0676097	1.74206	7.88433	9.34235	13.0929	17.2349
HOU 2018-19	-4.32351	3.16979	-8.21408	4.75492	4.88171	12.9832	5.47772

It is now that we can see that it isn't just playing with another high-level point guard that is enabling Gordon. Specifically, playing with CP allowed Gordon to elevate his game as even in CP's second season with the Rockets when they won 12 fewer games CP + Gordon was still highly successful in the roughly 470 minutes they played together. On the other hand, Harden seems to have struggled to elevate some of his best teammates during that year.

Let us then move on to Nene:

Plus Minus Per 36: Chris Paul, James Harden, and Nene

Team	Chris Paul Only	James Harden Only	Nene Only	CP + Harden	Harden + Nene	CP + Nene	w/ All 3
HOU 2016-17	-	4.82329	5.36342	-	5.97949	-	-
HOU 2017-18	6.16718	5.76075	9.09857	8.83828	7.41507	20.8415	16.819
HOU 2018-19	6.35659	3.76807	-1.69173	4.43241	5.561	8.88674	18.7793

While the CP minutes again look pretty strong, the minutes associated are fairly limited without Harden on the court at 240, and there were only 57 minutes where all 3 played together. Ultimately, it is fairly likely that Nene had a decently strong season toward the tail end of his career while CP3 played well with Nenê in the limited minutes giving that big boost in on-off we saw in the above graph.

Perhaps the last person to check didn't show a significant change in our previous on-off graph but was considered by some to be the 3rd best player on the Rockets during those two years. So let us take a moment to check how Clint Capela played with Chris Paul and Harden.

Plus Minus Per 36: Chris Paul, James Harden, and Clint Capela

Team	Chris Paul Only	James Harden Only	Clint Capela Only	CP + Harden	Harden + Capela	CP + Capela	w/ All 3
HOU 2016-17	-	4.41065	0.76647	-	6.33914	-	-
HOU 2017-18	11.7419	4.97054	-7.21744	12.4759	7.26649	7.62181	8.31006
HOU 2018-19	9.673	1.84309	-14.3835	10.5003	5.84028	3.66926	3.42291

We can see that the minutes where Capela played with Paul were just as effective in 2017-18 as when he played with Harden. However, the next season on average lineups with CP + Capela struggled. It also has to be acknowledged that CP and Harden both played around Capela differently. While Harden logged nearly 3 assists to the big man, Paul logged just over 1.

Paul was actually much less efficient passing to his bigs than Harden, with his passes that led to 2-pointers being converted at only 46.1% in 2017-18 and 48.5% in 2018-19 as opposed to Harden's 55.7% and 56.7% conversion rate respectively. However, where CP3 shined was in his ability to get the ball to shooters. His passes to 3-point shooters were converted 41.6% that first season in Houston and 37.5% the second. This was notably higher than Harden's rates at 36.8% and 35%. With the added fact that over the course of both seasons, his passes resulted in nearly as many 3s made as 2s made (576 vs 592) it becomes clear that CP is often probing the defense looking for the open shooter.

Oklahoma City Thunder

With his move to OKC, and as the clear best player on the team, Paul would find himself in the veteran spot like never before. Let us first look at what happened with Dennis Schröder.

Plus Minus Per 36: Dennis Schröder and Chris Paul

Team	w/ D. Schroder	w/ C. Paul	w/ Both
OKC 2019-20	-4.14063	-0.476504	12.4679

From what we have looked at so far, this is the greatest bump in plus-minus per 36 that we have seen so far. Considering these two played 1000 minutes together over the course of the season, this pairing has to have been one of the major drivers in OKC landing the 5th seed in 2019-20.

Plus Minus Per 36: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chris Paul

Looking at the then sophomore player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander next:

Team	w/ S. Gilgeous-Alexander	w/ C. Paul	w/ Both
OKC 2019-20	-3.3617	4.77957	5.66018

While a step up when playing together, this looks like CP provided a lot of stability to the young hooper.

Since we have checked out the centers on previous teams, let's check out Steven Adams.

Plus Minus Per 36: Steven Adams and Chris Paul

Team	w/ S. Adams	w/ C. Paul	w/ Both
OKC 2019-20	-2.21931	6.47356	4.65081

We saw in the above on off graphs that Steven Adams performance seems to have declined. It seems to be the case that again, Chris Paul's best minutes do not necessarily come with his starting center on the floor.

Last, let us take a look at the overlap between CP, Schröder, and Shai.

Plus Minus Per 36: Chris Paul, Dennis Schröder, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Team	Chris Paul Only	Dennis Schröder Only	Shai Only	CP + Schröder	Schröder + Shai	CP + Shai	w/ All 3
OKC 2019-20	5.26333	-11.6243	-10.6821	4.69656	-2.10645	-1.00885	24.0501

In the roughly 400 minutes they played together, it is clear that they formed a potent combination.

Phoenix Suns

Last, let us move on to the Suns, where CP's addition almost took several young rising stars all the way to a chip. Of course, let us start with Devin Booker.

Plus Minus Per 36: Devin Booker and Chris Paul

Team	w/ D. Booker	w/ C. Paul	w/ Both
PHX 2020-21	4.40241	3.77884	5.69686
PHX 2021-22	4.89427	5.8194	8.75107
PHX 2022-23	4.49871	-2.15811	5.15257

For the first time in CP's career, we see his costar outperforming him in terms of plus-minus per 36. Similar to his time in Houston, the team was able to perform both with and without the team's best player. Of course, we also have to take notice of the poorly performing 3rd season where together Booker and CP barely played better than the Booker minutes without CP and in those minutes that CP was in command, the Suns were losing pretty substantially.

Next, Mikal Bridges:

Plus Minus Per 36: Mikal Bridges and Chris Paul

Team	w/ M. Bridges	w/ C. Paul	w/ Both
PHX 2020-21	6.02956	5.86771	4.84941
PHX 2021-22	6.59587	8.31225	7.64319
PHX 2022-23	1.589	3.5165	-0.108219

The first two seasons seem pretty reasonable. from the first to the second season, both players get better or become more familiar with the system that they are in leading to a marked improvement to not only their play without one another, but also with. However, year 3 was a disaster. All lineups and combinations of these two players perform significantly worse than in years before.

Let's consider one of the players that the downward trend may be associated with: Deandre Ayton.

Plus Minus Per 36: Deandre Ayton and Chris Paul

Team	w/ D. Ayton	w/ C. Paul	w/ Both
PHX 2020-21	-0.48065	2.0212	6.05333
PHX 2021-22	9.41589	9.57184	6.01682
PHX 2022-23	1.17775	6.76314	-0.906252

Interestingly, while both players seem to have grown in the first two seasons, together they stagnated. Narrowing in on that 3rd year, it seems CP actually performed decently in the 617 minutes that Ayton was not on the floor alongside him. Even Ayton, at the very least, was positive in the 764 minutes he played without CP. But together, in 1271 minutes, they were losing by almost a point per 36.

At this point, we should check out the interaction between more than just two of these players at a time. Let's check out a few of these tables.

Plus Minus Per 36: Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and Mikal Bridges

Team	Chris Paul Only	Devin Booker Only	Mikal Bridges Only	CP + Booker	Booker + Bridges	CP + Bridges	w/ All 3
PHX 2020-21	2.58077	-2.72993	-3.22581	14.299	8.01102	4.9211	4.82998
PHX 2021-22	4.04459	-3.91433	2.71629	24.2014	8.89978	6.72777	7.97687
PHX 2022-23	0.257189	3.3996	-1.97963	5.01058	5.24481	-3.21872	5.39316

Plus Minus Per 36: Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and Deandre Ayton

Team	Chris Paul Only	Devin Booker Only	Deandre Ayton Only	CP + Booker	Booker + Ayton	CP + Ayton	w/ All 3
PHX 2020-21	0.307973	7.79593	-8.16759	5.29253	0.845342	7.1243	5.75392
PHX 2021-22	6.65746	0.143502	7.11807	11.9874	10.3144	4.33558	6.55168
PHX 2022-23	7.49179	5.92234	-2.73125	5.89121	3.39783	-7.74391	4.85169

Plus Minus Per 36: Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, and Deandre Ayton

Team	Chris Paul Only	Mikal Bridges Only	Deandre Ayton Only	CP + Bridges	Bridges + Ayton	CP + Ayton	w/ All 3
PHX 2020-21	3.99501	9.73059	-18.6395	-0.141184	3.40352	8.41538	5.7211
PHX 2021-22	10.2887	2.43011	1.82672	9.35047	9.93855	1.51622	6.32816
PHX 2022-23	-0.947732	1.30376	-2.32098	14.2355	1.75719	5.82847	-6.68035

It looks as if the combination of CP + Bridges + Ayton was the one that struggled the most last season. Booker acted as a stabilizing force when Ayton was on the court but even then, production with Ayton on the court took a serious hit. The terrible plus-minus and the fact that CP + Bridges + Ayton played 684 minutes together provide the backbone of why CP failed to produce at the level he had in previous seasons.

How about the Warriors?

As the last step before coming to any conclusions, let us take a quick look at he Warriors the last two seasons starting with a plus minus on-off graph.

Warriors On Off

We can see that the Warriors last year took on the characteristic of a top heavy team. Of the 12 players with the most minutes played from each season, all 12 from the championship year were positive in the minutes they were on the court as opposed to just 7 from last year's second round exit squad. Additionally, the championship season had just one player who couldn't be taken off the court: Steph. Last year, the team posted negative minutes when Steph, Dray, Klay, or Kevon weren't on the floor.

Let us take a quick look at the big 3 for the Warriors over the last two seasons.

Plus Minus Per 36: Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson

Team	Steph Curry Only	Draymond Green Only	Klay Thompson Only	Curry + Green	Green + Thompson	Curry + Thompson	w/ All 3
GSW 2021-22	6.61037	0.417547	4.26815	11.2059	-11.0549	6.91212	3.17274
GSW 2022-23	5.67973	-0.961096	-6.28858	6.31895	5.69626	-8.42532	6.97481

Considering how injured the teams were over the two seasons, let us check the minutes played together.

Minutes: Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson

Team	Steph Curry Only	Draymond Green Only	Klay Thompson Only	Curry + Green	Green + Thompson	Curry + Thompson	w/ All 3
GSW 2021-22	936.71	344.872	261.472	783.87	188.875	479.158	11.3467
GSW 2022-23	285.225	337.115	457.973	353.223	518.235	213.642	1089.06

All 3 played a measly 11 minutes together in 2021-22 so there isn't too much that we can take from that. Moving on, Curry and Green's numbers seem pretty stable without the other two. This leads me to suspect that these two players were able to be thrown in with many different players and find success. On the other hand, it seems to me that Thompson is more susceptible to the performance of his teammates which makes a certain amount of sense considering his expertise as a catch and shoot specialist.

This may help explain the difference between the Green + Thompson minutes in 2021-22 and 2022-23. In 2021-22 Klay had an eFG% of just 52.1% on catch and shoot attempts which was 1.1% below league average. The next season would see Klay jump up to an eFG% of 59.8% which was 5.3% above league average. Considering how much of Draymond's offense comes from his ability to pass to an open shooter, it isn't surprising to see that his numbers fell when paired with a shooter who wasn't knocking down his catch and shoot attempts.

What is clear from the data is that Steph and Klay both benefit from playing with Draymond not only as a defensive anchor but in the way it enables their off-ball game. About 10 FGA are generated off passes from Draymond to Thompson and Curry.

Lastly, the Warriors have struggled over the course of Curry's entire career in the non-Curry minutes.

Minutes and Plus Minus for Steph On-Off

Team	Minutes With Steph	PM With Steph	Minutes Without Steph	PM Without Steph
GSW 2009-10	2896.21	-187	1049.79	-108
GSW 2010-11	2488.99	-17	1477.01	-174
GSW 2011-12	731.855	79	2451.14	-304
GSW 2012-13	2982.55	133	978.445	-60
GSW 2013-14	2845.86	574	1120.14	-180
GSW 2014-15	2613.2	919	1332.8	-91
GSW 2015-16	2699.98	1022	1276.03	-140
GSW 2016-17	2638.55	1015	1317.45	-61
GSW 2017-18	1630.8	486	2315.2	4
GSW 2018-19	2331.17	689	1629.83	-159
GSW 2019-20	139.317	-45	3005.68	-521
GSW 2020-21	2151.52	244	1309.48	-168
GSW 2021-22	2211.09	509	1734.91	-55
GSW 2022-23	1941.15	268	2024.85	-120

While 2021-22 was better than 2022-23, losing those minutes means putting a greater burden on the aging star.

So what does this all mean for the Warriors?

Here are a few of the conclusions I came to in looking at the data and considering the context in which Chris Paul has played.

Chris Paul has found the most success playing around either shooting or driving guards preferring to pass the advantage created through driving or the action in a play to another player rather than taking that advantage to create a shot for himself. I believe that is shown through how closely his performance was tied to players such as Peja Stojaković, JJ Redick, Eric Gordon, Dennis Schröder, Booker in the first two seasons in Phoenix, and Mikal Bridges in the last. On the Warriors I think that Klay Thompson is going to be the one who gains the most by having a proper floor general alongside him as the primary scorer in the second unit though I think Steph will also benefit from someone else probing the defense before finding him for a good look.
I think CP3 is aware that in a lot of cases, his size is going to prevent him from performing certain passes to his bigs. This means that the advantage created by something like a pick and roll is often better used on passing to a shooter rather than a pocket pass to the big where it can be stripped. On the flip side, players such as Harden with their extra size can keep the ball high and finish with a bit more ease meaning that a drive is more likely to end with a layup or a lob. I think this is shown through his passes leading to nearly as many 3-pointers as 2-pointers in Houston as well as his plus-minus performance always being closely tied to another guard. For the Warriors, I think this will enable not just the shooters, but can be used to initiate the chaos and ball movement that the Warriors are known for.
CP has a strong voice and I think that lent to the eventual downturn in his personal statistics in the last year in Houston and in Phoenix. In particular, it is well documented that Harden and CP had a falling out in part because of their different philosophies about how the offense should be run with CP favoring more ball movement. In Phoenix, CP was the seasoned vet and a leader on that team. As Deandre Ayton became more disillusioned with the organization, we saw that he ignored not just the coach Monty Williams, but Chris Paul as well. It is hard to imagine that their relationship allowed them to play at a high level and I think that is shown through the numbers. Considering the current state of the Warriors, I think they will be wide open to accepting the perspective of such a high-level basketball mind. In addition, I think the type of basketball the Warriors play appeals to Paul as it offers a high level of flexibility and is unlikely to run into the same problems as when he was with the Rockets.
I think his veteran leadership in OKC and Phoenix helped young players such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Mikal Bridges, and Devin Booker in taking their next steps as basketball stars. The massive steps taken by those players in the time they spent with CP leads me to believe that he can only help in the development of Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga.
Every team CP has been on has become better. He has shown the ability to perform even without playing alongside the best players on the team and that is exactly what the Warriors need. In all but one season since Steph's ascension to stardom the Warriors have been negative with him off the court. I think that this could be the second season in large part due to the leadership and play of Chris Paul and I believe the data indicates that CP still has a lot left in the tank and the ability to lift his teammates in a way that no other signing for the Warriors has. To qualify, that isn't a knock on KD, I just think he shines by himself more than he causes others to shine as I believe CP has. If the Warriors aren't losing those minutes, that potentially allows for Curry's minutes to be reduced and opens the door for the Warriors to reach a higher seed. Beyond that, if the starting 5 of the Warriors can return to being the best lineup in the game, as they were last season, that would take them back into championship contention.

Last Things

Thanks to the people putting together the open source nba_api, as well as the people at Basketball Reference and the NBA stats page.